🔮 EV industry 2024 predictions from our community

“This year will prove the upward trend on the S curve in a lot of markets”.

“Adaption will accelerate as prices for EVs drop and options broaden!”

“Steady and significant growth of the EV industry, with increasing consumer choice and a gradual expansion of reliable charging infrastructure - along with continued propagation of fear, uncertainty, and disinformation by entrenched interests and knee-jerk media outlets.”

“EV adoption continues with exp. growth, German manufacturers get kicked in the balls by Korean/Chinese competitors.”

“Continue uptrend, don’t know total percentage of the years sale will be EV, but it will go up. Traditional OEMs… I hope they figure out in 2024 how they can make a profitable EV, the ones that do will show us by scaling production like Tesla.”

“EV sales will pass the tipping point, and ICE vehicle sales will plummet automatically and irrevocably.”

“Grabbing more sales from ICE than “experts” predicted.”

“Increasing EV adoption. More legacy auto makers increasing production. Increase in solar, wind, hydro, and possibly tidal power. Increased education about what EVs can and cannot do. Possibly alternate green power sources for industrial vehicles.”

“The EV industry will continue to grow unstoppably. What will come into focus: Where does the energy come from to charge the EV.“

“More and more EVs sold as the charging infrastructure improves and Tesla charges open up to the rest of the EV universe.”

“Going to be a year of slower growth in the U.S.;
stronger growth in Europe and
relatively flat growth in China
as the administration weeds out non-competitive companies. What I will predict is, if the Democrats win reelection in the U.S. as I believe they will, the support for infrastructure will help underwrite the growth in EVs.”

“EV adoption will continue to grow at a steady pace and pricing will become more competitive.”

“Industry will continue to stumble, but cars will continue to get better. Right now there's all this fossil fuel sponsored, anti-EV propaganda going around, likely causing some people to hesitate.”

“BYD overtakes Tesla, LFP increases market share. Steady 5 point bump of adoption in most geographies. Supply chain concentration concerns start to fade.”

“EV sales will exceed 10% of the total market.”

“Less than 20% growth in the US market.”

“2024 solidifies a solid foundation for a major positive inflection point in EV adoption in ‘25.”

“EV cars will continue to dominate, but due to uncertainty in economics, gas/petrol cars are still in shopping list, since their price is cheaper.”

“The American EV industry will sputter slightly in 2024 but a focus on infrastructure will make adoption skyrocket in the coming years.”

“Steady growth on EV acceptance. Slow but steady improvement in charging stations. It’s going to happen!”

EV adoption rate will slow down in EU/US, hitting the bottom of the "Trough of disillusionment"

“EVs' growth rate slowing, until charging network is more reliable.”

“Huge decrease in EV sales.”

“The fossil fuel industry will push for more tariffs and trade barriers to keep low priced EVs off the market.”

“No prediction just a hope that we continue to see a rise in EV production and sales and great sources of news like yours!”

“With it being an election year in the US expect even more misinformation being forced fed to the masses. Overall with the avalibity of more used EV's being avalable for purchase it should open up the market for more people to buy their first EV.”

“Prices will continue to shrink as adoption grows.”

“EV prices will go down as subsidies end and competition becomes more fierce. “

“The EV Industry will really take off only if the interest rate drops down to 4% or less.”

🇬🇧 UK: I'm going to make a bold prediction of the UK: that the discourse around EVs is going to get more optimistic. We are now some years into the EV transition, and with our ZEV mandate kicking in, I reckon positive word-of-mouth will start to make a real impact. With an election this year too we may hear uplifting policy narratives about net zero from both parties - as fundamentally people want to feel good about the future, not stay in the past. I hope outside this we hear a little more about how the UK/Europe can continue to significantly boost its battery capacity.

🇬🇧 UK EV residual prices will continue to slide for the coming year after UK pushed back IC vehile purchases until 2035. Savvy consumers are now waiting for Chinese OEMs to push legacy Auto Makers on EV prices, while perhaps the most eagerly awaited Renault 5 EV to hit the UK market

🇬🇧 In the UK, Chinese OEM competition with BYD already running TV Commercials over the Christmas and New Year holidays. Chery and their Omoda brand have been signing up their franchise network partnerships with their vehicles, ICE and EV coming to market in 2024.

🇪🇺 , 🗾 “I think the European and Japanese manufacturers are facing huge sales reductions because they missed the boat. A race ensues to be the first manufacturer to market a car under 25,000 euros.”

🇳🇱 The Netherlands: I expect that in the Netherlands, the share of electric cars will decrease, and new lease contracts will revert to gasoline. This is due to poor government policy.

🇧🇪 In Belgium, EV market will increase +70% in 2024 thanks to the new fiscal regulations. New hybrids are no longer deductible so almost all new corporate cars will be electric from this year. And corporate cars are 60% of new cars sales in Belgium...

🇮🇳 In India, we expect to see EV vehicles grow the most in 2W, 3W and buses. The rest shall follow. Oh, yes, our trains are almost totally electric now.

🇪🇺 EU and 🇺🇸 USA will erect tariffs or NTBs against €25k Chinese EVs.
The EU will try to develop domestic €25k EVs.
Used EV prices will continue to fall but may bottom.
Production slowdowns and mothballing will continue in German and US legacy manufacturers

🇨🇳 → 🇪🇺 Chinese EV growth continues in Europe but with some government push back. Decrease in interest rates supports increase in EV sales. New EV models will come to market, but no breakthrough products this year.

🇨🇳 Chinese invasion and lots of problems for European car manufacturers.

🇨🇳 Chinese EVs have a huge market share in Asian markets (but not EU/US due to tariffs).

🇺🇸 US: “Chinese cars will ‘invade’ the USA.”

🇺🇸 US: “EV sales will remain below expectations until they come equipped with NACS connectors and Tesla superchargers are fully open to non Tesla vehicles. CCS is dead.”

🇺🇸 US: “Hopefully we can also expect some pricing relief as volumes increase and supply chains are sorted out. This will also be the year where dealers will likely get on board and maybe even train some sales staff.”

🇺🇸 US: “EV market will grow but the big car companies are going about all wrong. They have not figured out how to sell an EV to their customers yet. A fast charging network is one big obstacle. They are being pushed by Joe Biden/govt. $ to change their models to EV's & they are not ready. 100's of EV's sitting in dealer lots and laying off thousands of employees as a result of it.”

“Stagnation for traditional OEMs, big growth for Chinese manufacturers, moderate growth for Tesla.”

“Tesla will still dominate the EV car market. It will announce new factory locations, new vehicles including a basic mass production vehicle as well as a van possible.

Also 2024 will see some emerging EV companies fail, like Lucid most likely, while others will battle for second place such as Rivian, Xiaomi, Fisker, Polestar and Nio.”

“I predict Tesla's brand and reputation will continue to regress and open the door for Rivian to become "the" desirable EV exclusive brand for Tesla's one-time customer base.”

“Tesla will continue to sell every vehicle & battery they can make.”

“Big name OEMs will rebadge Chinese cars and export them into major markets.”

“BYD rules the EV world. And we say goodbye to some legacy brands.”

“BYD will continue to make as many models as it can afford to and Apple will never make an EV.”

“Continued discounting and profit decline for Tesla countered by the inexorable rise globally of BYD.”

“EV adoption on the semi truck side picks up as more depots are developed. Need for nuclear energy to sustain the demand in CA. Acquisition of smaller companies to begin.”

“Apple Car Play will be a game changer for the car-industry and the consumer. EV-Trucks and Semi will be announced and bought. Solar and wind will grow further.”

“The idea of H2FC [hydrogen fuel cell] for consumer vehicles will finally die.”

“Model Y and 3 will be best selling EV's worldwide. Honda Prologue will sell poorly, too expensive for what you get.“

“Tesla will bring Y new release.”

“Rivian will unveil a new model.
Canoo will begin production of it's lifestyle vehicle.
Hyundai will unveil an affordable EV.”

“Smaller, cheaper, short trip, town5 EVs will begin to proliferate. Example: Nimbus one. More solar units will be installed to power future EVs.”

“EV production will be dominated by lower-cost ($25k US) EVs.”

“Lower priced EVs with less features will appear.”

“Toyota announces bankruptcy.”

“Charging stations will proliferate at an unprecedented rate, hopefully alleviating FUD about the grid’s ability to handle the ever-quickening pace of EV adoption.”

“Charging infrastructure will continue to expand along with increased adoption of residential solar and power wall integration.

“More mergers in EV charging space as underfunded networks continue to struggle with utilization/reliability.”

“Multiple US EV Charging Networks will fail or merge to start the consolidation in the marketplace.”

“For US market: continuing slowing of non-tesla vehicle purchases.
Why? early adopters have gotten theirs, so now it's the mainstream buyer who's majority purchasing. They aren't in a rush.

If you know the car you're buying, if you wait until 2025, will be Tesla supercharge network compliant 'out of the box', you'd likely delay until then, not buying one with an adaptor in '24 (another point of contact/device that can fail to operate as intended).

Similar situation with iPhones: if buying soon, do you wait for common USB-C to be built in, or get current one with fire connection, knowing you'll need adaptors down the road for new chargers/plug in devices.”

“In North America, CCS to NACS adapters from major OEMS switching standards, and by end of year, native NACS on ‘25 models. Other charge point operators start adding NACS.”

“North American fast charging will be noticeably more accessible and more reliable.”

“As the US charging infrastructure buildout takes shape, and later in the year, the NACS vehicles appear, the barriers to jumping in the pool for those on the fence will diminish and finally we will be off to the races. “

“Standardization will increase.”

“EV charging roaming will finally be figured out - probably by a well-funded (private equity) play.”

“One app to use for all chargers. Sorta like indeed for the job industry.”

“UK: Hopefully some serious commitment, by the government in the UK, to develop the charging network. “

“Cities with higher EV penetration will finally get serious about roadside charging.”

“More adoption of battery swapping.”

“I expect to see more truck charging activities with models coming to the market and mega-watt charging to be standardized.”

“Rapid simultaneous growth in EVSE and EVs.”

“Batteries will continue to improve in energy density, cycle life, and charging time. Movement away from pouch cells will continue.

Most companies talking about solid state batteries, will start rising the term “ semi “ solid state, which some call lithium-metal, where only portions are free of liquids or gels.

However many battery improvements are coming, such as replacing graphite in battery anodes with increasing amounts of silicon, and increasing energy density or by replacing a polycrystalline structure, with a single crystal for extended life, adding magnesium to LFP chemistry, and perhaps even bipolar batteries.”

“A breakthrough in battery technology is achieved. Electricity is getting cheaper and cheaper because of solar and wind power generation. The home battery is becoming commonplace.”

“New battery technology this year will drastically lower charge times.”

“Battery research will find cheaper and more dense products and some will begin construction of new battery manufacturing facilities based on that tech. Some existing plants under construction will be completed and increase competition.”

“More alternative battery chemistries coming to market.”

“Natrium Batteries will tame the environment discussion.”

“Lithium batteries will be out of EVs.”

“A greater amount of attention will be put on the disproportionately high cost of EV replacement batteries while lithium-on cells plunge per kWh overall.”

“More innovations in various domains, hope batteries can evolve too and recycling becomes a thing.”

“Battery recycling will become a visible issue. Lithium prices will rise. LFP ED will accelerate, along with market share. Onboard battery SoH sensors will proliferate.”

“Tesla's next giga-factory will be announced: Thailand. Tesla megapack factory (China) will begin production. Tesla (Lathrop) will reach full production.”

“Technologically, not much will change. commercial battery chemistries will remain the same. Solid state batteries will continue to be a dream.”

“No major changes in battery technology.”

“Tesla FSD will reach conditional (limited to geography and weather conditions) full self-driving capability.”

“[Tesla] FSD will come out of Beta.”

“FSD starts working perfectly most of the time (by end of 2024)”

“Tesla will complete a deal to provide its Full Self Driving solution to another car company.”

“Somebody will achieve full level 3 autonomous driving, but it's not going to be Tesla.”

“Employee from Beast (The best service for awesome travel) here once again.

Last year I predicted: Cybertruck delivery delays (I guess lost on that one with Tesla squeezing in a couple handfuls of deliveries into -23), hope we get our hands on one here in Europe soon.

FSD still not out (Beta is trucking along, but I imagine it still has its serious legal hurdles to face), serious Tesla depreciation (Ask anyone underwater on their loan right now, this came true),

Musk no longer CEO and new cars fitted with Lidar (obviously neither came true).

So about a 50% accuracy if I get half a point for there being about a few dozen Cybertrucks on the roads at the end of 2023, not bad in my opinion (don't ask for my prediction about Tesla share price)

New (old) predictions: I will not move away from my prediction that Elon will not be CEO at the end of 2024, stock is still up which I think is partly the reason for the shareholders tolerating his countless media controversies. My prediction is this will change in -24

I will also not move away from my prediction of Tesla being wrong about the need for Lidar. FSD will run into severe regulatory hurdles even if it is safer than a human driver on average. Cruise and Waymo are in the sniper sight of the US regulators and have scaled down operations despite mostly operating in the most tolerant place in the world for innovation, San Francisco.

And as a cherry on top new prediction: Union fight in Scandinavia will make Tesla eat their word on union cooperation paving way for US unions to start establishing their foothold in the later hires of Tesla who didn't benefit as much from the massive stock gains.

As always still the best vehicles I have ever experienced but it will be a turbulent year for Tesla.”

“The Model Y will dominate all other vehicle sales worldwide. Cybertruck will become the best-selling EV truck, with 100,000-120,000 units produced and delivered. Stellantis will announce plans to join NACS. Tesla will roll out the first V4 supercharger cabinets, so cybertruck can charge at 350kw.”

“Elon Musk will continue to damage the Tesla brand.”

“BESS [Battery Energy Storage Systems] will be the biggest gain in growth and profit for Tesla.”

“Cybertruck its a big step in the auto industry - I believe it can be the way to go forward. V2G being more accessible is important to stabilize the grid.”

“Tesla 25k EV will be announced, probably to be made in China and orders will be phenomenal.”

“Tesla to officially announce a sub 30k model that goes HVM by 2025.”

“Tesla introducing Model 2 with Sodium Ion Batteries.”

“Tesla Cybertruck’s Dual-Use Innovation: A Game Changer in 2024

Concept Overview: In 2024, Tesla introduces a transformative feature for its Cybertruck: a bed-mounted hoist system paired with a removable 47kWh range extender “Bed Pack,” that also serves as home battery storage.

Key Features:
• Heavy-Duty Hoist: Capable of lifting over 700 pounds, tailored for the range extender’s weight.
• Innovative Range Extender: Provides over 130 additional miles, total range exceeding 470 miles.
• Home Battery Storage: When not in use, it functions as a robust home energy system.
• Financial Incentive: This dual-use battery could qualify for a 30% US tax credit, meeting the Residential Clean Energy Tax Credit’s criteria.

Industry Impact: This concept blends utility and mobility, potentially revolutionizing the EV market. It offers a unique, cost-effective solution for energy management, both for vehicles and homes, setting a new standard for EV versatility in 2024.”

“The only true constant I can predict, is that the readers of the EV Universe are simply the best. That’s you. All the rest is covered above.
Keep rocking. “