EVwire brief: Tesla’s Q1 2026 delivery consensus stands at roughly 365,000 vehicles, based on recently released company-compiled analyst estimates. This equates to an 8.6% YoY increase from Q1 2025 and a 12.5% QoQ drop from Q4 2025.
Tesla’s latest delivery consensus was aggregated from Daiwa, DB, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Mizuho, BofA, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Tesla’s company-compiled Q1 2026 delivery consensus
The estimates point to 365,645 total deliveries for Q1 2026, with a median of 363,371 vehicles.
This would represent a sequential decline from Q4 2025’s actual deliveries of 418,227 vehicles, reflecting typical seasonal softness in the first quarter.
The bulk of Q1 2026’s deliveries is expected to come from Model 3 and Model Y, which account for over 350,000 units in the consensus estimate. Other models are projected to contribute a much smaller share at just under 14,000 units.
The lion’s share of Tesla’s deliveries are comprised of the Model 3 and Model Y
Analysts expect steady growth beyond 2026
Looking beyond the quarter, analyst consensus points to continued growth in Tesla’s delivery volumes.
Total deliveries for full-year 2026 are estimated at approximately 1.69 million vehicles, rising to over 3 million units annually by 2030. The Cybercab is expected to be ramped fully by this time.
Tesla noted that the consensus figures are compiled from third-party analysts and are not endorsed by the company.
The Cybercab is expected to enter production this year
In addition to vehicle deliveries, analysts expect Tesla’s energy storage business to continue expanding.
Consensus estimates point to 14.4 GWh of deployments in Q1 2026, with full-year projections reaching over 65 GWh.
Longer-term forecasts suggest continued growth, with deployments potentially exceeding 160 GWh annually by 2030.
Source: Tesla Investor Relations
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