EVwire brief: Cox Automotive estimates U.S. EV sales fell from 296,304 in Q1 2025 to estimated ~212,600 year-over-year in Q1 2026, reflecting a 28% decline.
Well, everyone expected a decline in Q1, now we just know the rough range.
At the same time, used EV sales moved in the opposite direction, rising 12% year-over-year to roughly 93,500 units.
Source: Cox Auto
Despite the decline in new EV sales, underlying pricing trends hint at some normalization in the market.
New EV price premiums have fallen to around $6,500, while used EV prices are now within roughly $1,300 of internal combustion vehicles.
Source: Cox Auto
Inventory data also reflects mixed conditions. New EV supply remains elevated, running 46% higher than ICE vehicles.
On the other hand, used EV inventory is now closely aligned with traditional vehicles.
Source: Cox Auto
While new EV demand may be under pressure due to pricing, inventory, and macro conditions, improving affordability and rising used EV adoption suggest that consumers are still gravitating towards electric vehicles.
That being said, Cox data shows that most major OEMs experienced declining volumes in Q1 2026, with overall U.S. auto sales down 6.5% year-over-year.
Source: Cox Auto
Within the broader market, Tesla’s U.S. sales were estimated at 122,196 units for Q1 2026, down from 128,100 units in Q1 2025.
Despite the 4.6% year-over-year decline, Tesla’s market share remained unchanged at 3.3%, indicating relative stability compared to other automakers in a contracting market.
For context, Tesla’s company-compiled consensus shows that analysts are expecting Tesla to deliver 365,645 vehicles globally this first quarter.
